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Future of WW2 Militaria - Opinions?


JasonT
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Hey everyone, just wanted to post something I’ve been thinking about recently.

 

With a lot of the direct descendents of the greatest generation and the more serious collectors getting older, I just don’t see there being enough younger collectors taking their place when the time comes to liquidate or pass down collections. But maybe that’s just me. I know there are plenty of young folks out there interested in the hobby, but I personally feel that too many young people these days are just outright not interested in that time in history, especially if they no longer have a relative with a direct connection to it.

 

Sadly, unwanted items and groupings have always been thrown out by family members or just lost over time. I am willing to guess this will probably continue in greater occurrence in the coming years. What will the market prices do? Go up with supply going down? Or go down with demand dropping? Even though most WWII items were mass produced, will they take the same path that American Civil War relics have?

 

Feel free to share your own opinion

 

 

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Maybe 29th items will be cheaper soon :rolleyes:

 

Just kidding. on a serious note, you do bring up a good point.

I dont think it will get like Civil War items. But definitely not the same as now. But time will tell.

 

Dave

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As of tonight there are over 197,000 listings on eBay for World War II militaria.

 

That suggests that currently there is a market for items from this time period. I think this will continue for some time.

 

The problem with comparing to Civil War militaria is preservation. Part of the reason Civil War items are so expensive is that many of them simply deteriorated over time. I don't think you will see the same problems with WWII militaria.

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normaninvasion

Militaria is a very small niche in collecting communities. I think it will always be valued. Will the younger generation be carrying the torch? Hard to say, lot of 20 somethings are racked with loans, can't find work, and have different priorities. Economic factors maybe the biggest problem for future interest in collecting anything.

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RustyCanteen

WWII-Vietnam and Desert Storm will always have a strong following. The hobby was big even before things snowballed in the late 1990's. It is huge now, but it will always be big. Quality militaria will always be something people will jump on.

 

People come and go, but the hobby doesn't die.

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As of tonight there are over 197,000 listings on eBay for World War II militaria.

 

That suggests that currently there is a market for items from this time period. I think this will continue for some time.

 

The problem with comparing to Civil War militaria is preservation. Part of the reason Civil War items are so expensive is that many of them simply deteriorated over time. I don't think you will see the same problems with WWII militaria.

 

I agree, with shows like Pawn Stars and American Pickers (who I'll admit am a fan of), an increasing amount of people think the stuff they own will be worth something if they hold onto it long enough - the good and the junk. Post-Civil War the average person was spending their money on necessities, not preserving and building collections/hobbies.

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I agree, with shows like Pawn Stars and American Pickers (who I'll admit am a fan of), an increasing amount of people think the stuff they own will be worth something if they hold onto it long enough - the good and the junk. Post-Civil War the average person was spending their money on necessities, not preserving and building collections/hobbies.

 

In line with your comment...our country was FAR different in 1945 than it was in 1865. When the Civil War ended, approximately 3 million men (and women) had served between the Union and the Confederacy. These men were 25 years old on average and thus had been born in 1840, when there were a total of 26 states and vast unexplored territory. Of those who returned to their homes, those in the south returned to nothing short of impoverished conditions, having lost much if not all of their holdings during the war. The uniforms they had, and the war material remaining, was used until it was no longer usable. For those in the north, many (like those of my family) returned to "the frontier"...which was, at that time, much of the open area in the eastern states. :D Yes, there were some who went back to the big cities, but many of those went to work in labor-intensive (and lower paid) jobs. In the decades that followed, some went into "the territories", carrying with them the necessities they could place in a single wagon...their old, worn uniforms and other trinkets, assuming they had survived to that point, becoming casualties of economy and weight. Of course, a considerable amount of militaria from the time made its way through the years, surviving in random attics, closets, barns and the like, but I would venture to bet that very, very little of what was initially created for use was retained for the sake of historical value (collectors did exist back then, but they were very few and far between...and their "reach of influence" was limited to the handful of miles around their homes...)

 

And of course, for these men born in 1840, the average age at death in 1880 was 40...thus, if they made it through the war, survived everything else thereafter, the majority of them never even made it to the 20th Century. The point of that statistic is that it was really only in style during the 20th Century to have closets in houses. For the 40 years following the end of the Civil War, most people used wardrobes...averaging four feet wide...to maintain their entire closet of clothing. So the people who didn't wear out their uniforms initially simply had no place to store them and once again...they got tossed or used in any manner of other utilitarian forms.

 

Further, the government of 1865 was far more adverse to maintaining a large standing military (there wasn't a need for a huge military at the time) and by 1869, the strength of the Army (I don't have the Navy numbers handy) had been decreased to a total of 45,000, and was further reduced to 27,442 in 1879. A smaller military meant less need for people to maintain their military goods, and less need for the government to have stockpiles of military items (thus the rise of Bannerman, etc.)

 

Contrast this state with the world in 1945. Over 16 million men and women had served in the US armed forces during WW2. They were roughly the same average age of the Civil War soldier, many having been born in the immediate aftermath of WW1. As young children, they saw the country (and the world) plunge into a deep depression, along with several catastrophic natural disasters. The idea of conserving things and saving everything possible for reuse became ingrained in many of them. When the war started, the nation was essentially mobilized...from personnel joining the military to the conversion of the nation's industrial base to a wartime production mode (no businessman in his right mind would turn down a government wartime contract...they were an economic boon for the recently-beleaguered economy!) Military equipment (later known to us as "militaria") :) was churned out by the millions of units, not just for the war in Europe and island-hopping in the Pacific, but also in expectation of the extremely-costly invasion of Japan.

 

August 1945 came, the war ended, and within a matter of months, the beginnings of the Cold War began. The military did shrink after the end of WW2, but still, by 1950, 1.4 million men and women were serving on active duty; the vast majority of those being veterans of WW2. For those veterans who left the military in 1945 and 1946, many had come of age during the war and had gone from being dependent on parents to being producing adults. There was a great need for housing and, just as fast as the wartime production line could being operation, much of the industrial attention was turned to producing what would later become known as "suburbia". One of the most notable additions to these houses in suburbia were these things called closets. At first, they were relatively small. But as time went on, the closets (and corresponding storage facilities for storing excess "stuff") increased in size. Part of this was due to the fact that many of this generation were raised on the conservation mentality forced upon them by the depression, and part of it was due to the fact that many became more financially stable than the generations before them and as a result, put down roots in geographical places...thus alleviating the loss of militaria through economy, size, and cross-country moving in wagons that the Civil War veterans experienced.

 

Finally, the government, due to the Soviet Union, retained considerable excess materiel on hand in the case of another world war. The size of the military remained vastly larger than it ever had been during any previous "peaceful" time in history, even on a per-capita basis. Combine that with the increased life expectancy, with the average male born in 1920 expected to live well into the 1970s, and "average" females (often their widows) expected to live well into the 1980s (completely discounting the huge number that have lived well beyond that due to advancements in healthcare, etc.) that much of the militaria we have today only started coming out onto the market, fresh "out of the woodwork" 30 or so years ago, after being cared for in relatively controlled storage (again, an average) in a house with inside closets. The same can be said about the government releasing WW2-vintage military goods in the 1970s and 1980s during the post-Vietnam drawdown (they were releasing stuff before, but it much of it left the "system" after Vietnam.)

 

Additionally, the collecting world has expanded remarkably in the last forty to fifty years. Those same veterans who were such conservationalists because of their upbringing also wanted to have hobbies (now having the excess finances to do so) and thus many people started collecting this and that. That eventually translated over into things like our military memorabilia. Combine that with the internet, and you have the resulting explosion in the collecting world (collecting was far less fun in the pre-internet days...at least in my opinion.) So you end up with the vast quantity of militaria coming out of families and away from veterans...into a ready market of collectors, ready to preserve the items not just for historical value but also due to financial interest...something absolutely unheard of in the same length of time after the end of the Civil War (and even WW1, to an extent.)

 

Yes, I made MANY generalizations in my above writing...and there are exceptions to everything I wrote. But, it was fun doing the research on it. :) As far as I am concerned, there will always be a market, and a ready supply, of WW2 military memorabilia, at least as compared to the militaria from previous wars.

 

Dave

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What will the market prices do? Go up with supply going down? Or go down with demand dropping?

 

 

 

First off, I believe there will always be a strong market for WWII items, but I also believe that there will be market and price fluctuations over the years. Many collectors seem to believe that value goes up in direct relation to the age of their items and that once prices go up they don't/won't come down, but that's rarely how it actually works.

 

I found your quote above interesting. Looking at it from a supply and demand perspective, when the demand goes down (especially with collectors leaving the hobby, voluntarily or involuntarily), the supply goes up at the same time as those collectors reenter the market. So while we may see fewer and fewer WWII items entering the market from veterans and their families, we will see more and more from the estates of collectors.

 

I personally believe that within the next 10 years or so we will see a "tipping point" with collectors from the baby-boom generation either passing away or retiring from the hobby. I think we will see prices on mid to lower end items remaining relatively flat during this time. The market for truly high-end items will likely remain strong, but I think it will remain very much a buyers market. If this drives down prices/values in the short term, I think its still good in the long term as more realistic prices on some items will likely encourage younger generations to begin collections or expand existing collections.

 

The American Civil War militaria comparison is interesting to me as well. Yes, it is a much more limited amount of material for a variety of reasons, but there is more to that market than just 19th century social migration patterns. The Civil War market has seen a decided decrease in prices over the past several years. An aging collector base and an economic downturn are likely to blame. American Civil War will always be popular, but that doesn't always directly translate to continued rising prices/values. I think the real lesson there is "don't take the next generation of collectors for granted".

 

Just my thoughts,

Vance

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Jennings Lane

In my opinion, the market for 20th century militaria remains strong and looks to stay that way for the foreseeable future. As a general line antiques dealer, I can't say the same for several other fields of collecting. With some exceptions, glassware, toys, knives, pocket watches and more have significantly dropped in value over the last few years. So, no one knows what the future will bring. All said, collect what you collect because you like it and enjoy it and if turns out to be worth more than you paid for it, that's icing on the cake.

 

As to collecting as an investment, I can't resist adding a quote from my old friend Louis Cohen. I'll preface it by saying that I know that a lot of people have made a lot of money by collecting for years and selling off their collections. But, what he said still has some merit. Louis was a lawyer for fifty years, a serious collector of Louisville memorabilia and passionate about history.

 

"If it doesn't pay rent, interest or dividends, it's not an investment."

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I think as time goes by the interest on WW2 militaria will go down, the more time that passes the less interest because there is no connection

 

it will be stuff that used to be popular, everything comes and goes as time goes by, the future generations wont be interested because it will be like ancient history to them

 

there will still be a percentage of people who collect WW2 but by that time most people will think of it as ancient history or like something from the days of the Colonial times, old news

 

as the world changes people's interest will change with it

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I personally believe that within the next 10 years or so we will see a "tipping point" with collectors from the baby-boom generation either passing away or retiring from the hobby. I think we will see prices on mid to lower end items remaining relatively flat during this time. The market for truly high-end items will likely remain strong, but I think it will remain very much a buyers market. If this drives down prices/values in the short term, I think its still good in the long term as more realistic prices on some items will likely encourage younger generations to begin collections or expand existing collections.

 

Thanks Vance! I agree. High end, hard to find items in immaculate condition with a great history will always be sought after and command a high price. Overall I think it will become a buyers market as well

 

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"If it doesn't pay rent, interest or dividends, it's not an investment."

 

Great quote!

 

Even though 90% of us collect for our enjoyment and the history involved, everything ultimately comes down to money - how much we can pay for said item, how much we feel it's worth, and what others are selling it for. Only a select few can collect without giving any thought to money

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The only fly in the ointment I see in the future of World War II collecting is in the cost.
When a hobby becomes expensive it tends to drive out the younger generations as they just can't afford it.
A young collector can probably scrape together cash for a $10.00 rifle belt or a $20.00 helmet (as I was doing back in the late 80's) but to come up with $100.00 for a rifle belt or $300 for a helmet just isn't going to happen. The resulting frustration will usually cause these individuals to eventually look elsewhere for their "military fix" leaving World War II collecting to become stagnate.

My father's favorite quote is: "an item is only worth what someone will pay you for it..." and that rings very true with this hobby. I might be able to say that my Air Force Crusher is worth $300.00 but if no one will pay me for it, well then, what is it really worth?

Now, this is in no way a statement against dealers...and I, in no way, am insinuating that items should be given away...this is merely an observation from what I have witnessed at shows and by talking to younger collectors who are extremely passionate about the hobby but, as stated earlier, extremely frustrated as well.

Just my two cents,

Steve

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And to top it off...after taking the time to read Dave's finely written and researched post...we have now eclipsed into another new generation of collectors :)

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I collect and deal in military collectibles because it makes me happy. I've been having a blast. I have no control over what makes everyone else happy.

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Crackiswhack140

There is not going to be a shortage of younger collectors. I'm 17 and I know of at least 4 people who collect militaria on some scale from my small high-school. As a reenactor I've seen units full of kids who looked younger than me (whether or not that's authentic is another matter). Sure prices are going up, but you can still find ww2 stuff cheap in sizable quantities with a little effort. The market post-war was so saturated in Military surplus that Original objects will continue coming out of the woodwork in quantity for 40-50 years at least. Nearly all of the common items had civilian use or were used by kids playing army. True, values are climbing, but I can tell if a seller knows the value of what they're selling or not within 10 seconds. Collectors are taking what is traditionally a low-price, low-class item and turning it into a high-class expensive collectible. You just have to find the people still selling it as low-class collectibles and buy it there. It's always great when you see price tags marked "army coat $2"(my m1943 field jacket) or "army bag $20"(my '44 pack and suspenders) or "army stuff $3 each $12 all"(my named WAC lot) but the cheap stuff will eventually dry up and give way to Vietnam gear then Desert Storm etc ad infinitum. The point of this rambling mess is that as the younger collectors are a war ahead of the older ones and working in force; and that ww2 stuff isn't as expensive as you think. That's all I got to say about that.

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  • 4 months later...

This is an old thread, but I'm bringing it back to life. This hobby will go through a heavy transition in the next 10-15 years. Older collectors currently dominate the hobby due to their buying stuff back in the day when it was cheap, as well as their disposable income. These collectors also aren't buying the basics anymore (since they most likely already have multiple examples) which is why we are currently seeing the prices of mid-low end stuff get so cheap. On another note, the younger generation getting into the hobby is far less likely. Priorities have shifted completely, and with a few exceptions, history will be all but forgotten. Look at what has happened to this country in the last 10 years. Now imagine what another 10 years is going to do. Yes there are a few young guys coming into the hobby each year, but consider a few things. Let's take a recent Militaria show where there were only 10 guys under the age of 25 out of the thousands of old hands. Out of those 10 guys let's say half of them are in college which will eventually lead to a career supplying disposable income. Each of those 5 guys will eventually have to choose between raising a family, or buying Militaria, which is a crossroad every collector faces at least once in his life. Unless of course one of them is born rich. So there will be a few young guys coming into the scene, but one more aspect to consider. The older guys are starting to really get up there. What happens in 10-15 years when they start to realize that the end is not far away, and they can't take the stuff with them? Leave it all for the family to throw on eBay? Let the family divide it up and sell it as best they can? Or sell it themselves and have a nice chunk of change to live on for the last few years. I think whatever route is chosen we are going to see a massive amount of Militaria flood the market in 10-15 years, and prices for the basic stuff is going to plummet. There's going to be a million m1 fixed bails floating around on the internet, and only a couple thousand who care enough to buy some. And in another 25 years it will be much worse as ww2 will be almost completely forgotten by the younger generations.

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I wonder how long the average militaria collector holds on to their collection? there are some that will keep it until they die and some will get out of the hobby eventually and sell it all when they get too old and need to move into a care home or senior center

 

my guess is the average collector might hold on to their collections for 25 - 50 max years , depending on how old they are now

 

if your 20 - 25 maybe 40 or 50 years to go before you sell it

 

if your 55 - 65 maybe 15 - 20 years until you decide to sell it all

 

since the average life expectancy is around 75 for males

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I just put my collection out on the front street curb to spare myself future pain.

 

 

Kurt, will be by to pick up off the curb ^_^

 

 

Dibs on what you can't get in your car. :D

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