the end of the US market ?

[usaaf93]

Hello

 

I don t know if some of you noticed it but the value of the dollars has considerably improved lately compared to some money like the Euros. When with my euro I was getting 1,4 dollars a couple of months ago, I now only get 1 dollar.

It s pretty much like paying 30 % more on everything I buy here or on ebay.

When you hear the economists comments it is going to stay for a while with one dollar for one euro.

So here are my questions. How did you react to this problem ? My question is mostely for foreign collectors but americans are welcome too !

Do you think if the US market looses its european customers it will have an effect on the prices and maybe lower them (less demandes, less expensive) ? Could we come back to the original prices before the rush of europeans collectors to ebay usa 10 years ago ?

Thanks for your opinion.

Julien

[Teamski]

With oil the way it is going, I wouldn't expect the dollar to dump again any time soon.

 

-Ski

[1canpara]

With our Canadian dollar at 80 cents against the U.S. dollar, it hurts when I buy something in the 500-1000 range....it was a quick drop for us, we were at 97 cents last August! It hasn't deterred me from buying stuff I want, but I look forward to the day our dollar is at par with the U.S. dollar again!

 

Rick

[Ronny67]

The thing about US military equipment in Europe is purely a case study of supply and demand. The main source of gear is in the US. Europeans get the short end of the stick because they need to pay what Americans ask. This situation has been getting better as more gear has hit European markets, but I never expect it to equalize.

This is a primarily American market, and it will continue to revolve around the American dollar.

[hbtcoveralls]

I've noticed that my Europe based friends seem to be making fewer purchases. For a while the strong Euro allowed them to buy cheaply enough to offset the ridiculous shipping to Europe, but now I think those days may be ending.

Tom Bowers

[General Apathy]

I've noticed that my Europe based friends seem to be making fewer purchases. For a while the strong Euro allowed them to buy cheaply enough to offset the ridiculous shipping to Europe, but now I think those days may be ending.

Tom Bowers

Hi Tom, pleased to say that my gas and food bills have dropped dramatically , as my income is in British pounds I now get 1.40 Euros to the pound! three years ago it was one to one.

 

This should have an effect on the 2016 2nd Armored trip if it remains the same, if the trip is paid for in British pounds and then the fuel paid for in Euros should be a great saving. !! Hahaha

 

Lewis

[Johan Willaert]

I have always bought in the US, even back in 2000-2001, when I paid 1,25Euro to the Dollar.... Even now I find it still interesting to buy items... It's all about what's available and your interest...

[Sabrejet]

The UK £ is currently @ $1.51 (fastest growing European economy and not a part of the Eurozone!) That said, I've purchased very little from the US for over a year now, primarily because of the significant hikes in USPS transAtlantic postage rates which, in conjunction with UK VAT and customs charges, often make purchases uneconomical. There are special rates for "collectibles"...as long as the necessary paperwork is completed by the sender (not always done!)...but overall it's a disincentive. Thankfully though, there is no shortage of GI collectibles in the internal UK market.

[Andrei]

$1 @ €1 doesn't stop me if I really want something. But the international shipping charges and gvt tax is another story. Hopefully I have a POBox in NYC and an old mate who travels back and forth Paris and NYC for his business venture and he brings me back my stuff.

But right now I am thinking about stopping the collection so $1 for €1 is not that bad if I decide to sell it!

[Bugme]

Our European friends have had an opportunity to buy at discounted rates for a long run because of the very generous exchange rate. Now, the sale(so to speak) is over. Outside of the shipping costs which, I agree are insane, the 1 for 1 exchange is still pretty fair. I only have 5% of my sales which are foreign so, I have not noticed it as having dug too deep into my pockets at this time.

[usaaf93]

I have always bought in the US, even back in 2000-2001, when I paid 1,25Euro to the Dollar.... Even now I find it still interesting to buy items... It's all about what's available and your interest...

Hi

I have been buying in the US since 2003 when the dollar was high but back then the prices were a little lower in my opinion.

I have made less purchase recently but I have been collecting for 16 years and I don t want to stop.

I think during this "golden age" it was less expensive to purchase everything in the US. When I was looking for common stuffs like M36 belts or canteen covers, it was less expensive to buy them in the US and to make them cross the atlantic than to buy them in a show 5 miles away from home. Now this is over.

This works for common stuffs but when you are looking for rarer stuffs it is different. Even with an expensive dollar I will have to buy in the US simply because we don t find A2 jackets and heated flight suits here !!!

We only find what farmers picked up in the late 1940's (field gear, weapons, and field uniforms)

[Mack-the-Finger]

I agree:

 

I think during this "golden age" it was less expensive to purchase everything in the US. When I was looking for common stuffs like M36 belts or canteen covers, it was less expensive to buy them in the US and to make them cross the atlantic than to buy them in a show 5 miles away from home. Now this is over.
This works for common stuffs but when you are looking for rarer stuffs it is different. Even with an expensive dollar I will have to buy in the US simply because we don t find A2 jackets and heated flight suits here !!!
We only find what farmers picked up in the late 1940's (field gear, weapons, and field uniforms)

 

 

I used to buy from the USA for some other reasons besides the strong convenience in exchange rates (which in certain periods had been essential in realizing some really brilliant deals indeed).

Hopefully now, while I certainly will begin to rely more decisively on the european market, there will be no more reason to mantain the outrageous int'l shipping rates as well as to keep on with the pidgeon shooting to anything coming from the USA by the crooks of (italian) EU customs.

I guess there should be a new protocol to regulate int'l exchange between EU & USA, as foreshadowed by the latest G-20, if I'm not wrong. This could be helpful in equalize the balance of trades.

 

[BROBS]

For me it's great because I collect German badges and other WW2 Heer or Luftwaffe items.

I can now get these at the prices had in Europe for a long time! It used to be 1.5x the price, now barely over the dollar amount!

 

I have been picking up screaming deals. I'm sure it doesn't work the other way.

-Brian

[hbtcoveralls]

Hi Tom, pleased to say that my gas and food bills have dropped dramatically , as my income is in British pounds I now get 1.40 Euros to the pound! three years ago it was one to one.

 

This should have an effect on the 2016 2nd Armored trip if it remains the same, if the trip is paid for in British pounds and then the fuel paid for in Euros should be a great saving. !! Hahaha

 

Lewis

Yeah, but now you're going to be flooded by American tourists looking for a bargain. It's a shame that the only thing I can think that I need from Britain is the real Cadburys

Tom Bowers

[vzemke]

I know there are several people on here who seem to hold a grudge against European buyers getting a so-called "discount" due to the exchange rate (with shipping and customs fees I don't think a discount really exists anyway, or is at least greatly exaggerated). However, I think there are two sides to this issue.

 

From the perspective of a "part time" dealer and "full time" collector, it seems to me that Europe has been the major "growth market" for WWII US militaria over the past decade. There seem to be a great deal of "entry level" collectors under the age of 40 in Europe, a key demographic that is often missing in the militaria market here in the US. Does this drive up the price of items that many US collectors would consider to be common items? Of course it does. However, on the other hand, strong and steady prices are an indication of strong health in the hobby, which is ultimately good for all of us who own WWII collections.

 

Let’s face it, the average age of WWII collectors here in the US is getting older and older every year. The number of collections being liquidated each year is only going to increase over the next decade. I think this is really the "third wave" of WWII stuff hitting the market (1st wave: surplus stores, 2nd wave: WWII vet estates, 3rd wave: collector estates). The key difference however is bulk. When a 30-40+ year collection is sold a, a huge amount of material hits the market all at once. Without continued growth of entry level collectors, we will rapidly approach a tipping point where more material is on the market than there are buyers, which will naturally cause prices to go down, WAY down in some cases. Many people would argue that we have already crossed over that tipping point, but I think what we are seeing is only the tip of the iceberg.

 

The prices of many niche areas of this hobby are supported by just a handful of collectors. On eBay it only takes two collectors who really want something to run up the price. The loss of just one of these collectors can have a dramatic impact on the market. Who will step in support the sagging market?

 

Some of you may be saying “great, let the prices drop so I can buy more!” That’s great and in part I agree. I’ve always said I would collect what I collect even if it wasn’t worth anything. But when it comes time for your collection to be sold and the WWII market has collapsed, you will be singing a different tune. You may not like to admit it, but there comes a time when your collection will be disposed of, even if you might not be alive to see it and you leave that burden to your heirs. I’ve found that most people only think things are “over valued” or “overpriced” when they are buying, and when it comes time to sell the come to expect those same prices they previously disparaged.

 

So, I for one am sad to see a lowering in the buying power of European based collectors. I think this combined with the insane USPS international shipping rates are not good for the younger and beginning collectors setting out to build a collection of WWII US miltiaria. The hobby needs more entry level collectors, no matter what continent they live on.

 

-Vance

[BROBS]

I do agree, Vance.

A lot of the what we would consider "lower end" of the US market was sold overseas.

Now if it's not viable with shipping, fees, exchange rate, etc... that's a good portion of the market.

 

However I still don't think that prices will drop as you have predicted.

There are many more collectors out there than you know, and even more that would probably start collecting given the opportunity.

 

Shows like "Pawn Stars" and "American Pickers", as much as we love to hate them, really do wonders for the antique/collectible market.

They get folks interested in "old stuff" and inspire them to start collections... sometimes based on a few items they already own.

(Grandpa's WW2 uniform?)

 

So I think the market will be fine and the Euro will go back up... but for now I will enjoy buying items from the European market at discounted prices!

--Brian

[vzemke]

Brian,

Civil War collectors said the same thing 20 years ago..... and that market has a seen a sizable drop in the past decade. Was it a market crash or a market correction? That really only depends on your perspective. Are there still scores of people who collect American Civil War? Of course, and there always will be, but the supply and demand shifted greatly within that field. Thats not necessarily "bad" for the hobby in the long term, but can be painful in the short term.

 

I don't honestly think the WWII US militaria market will see the bottom fall out, but I do not think we will start to see pre-2008 realized prices at many levels anytime soon. One of the things that has really struck me from the past year of selling on ebay, is that there really are a lot of people around the world who are interested in this stuff. Not all of them go to shows or participate on public forums. Lots of "closet collectors" out there.

 

But the same problem remains, are there enough people coming into and hobby to off set those who are dying off? I think only time will tell.

 

I think it is a buyers market, and will continue to be for quite some time.

[Got da Penny]

I’ve found that most people only think things are “over valued” or “overpriced” when they are buying, and when it comes time to sell the come to expect those same prices they previously disparaged.

 

 

Vance, I agree 100% with your statement.

 

I was discussing the Civil War scenario at the SOS with a handful of friends. I have

came to the conclusion that it's a Downward Spiral, when it comes to buying or selling.

What entry level collector wants to start buying items that are.

1. Too Expensive.

2. Too far an era in the past to warrant starting a collection.

Guys will have barns full of Civil War items ... Who wants a McClellan Saddle ? Nothing is really worth having in a collection to a new collector. "My thoughts"

They want a handful of items ... Swords,Medals,Documents & Firearms. if they buy anything.

 

New Collectors are exposed to the Current War in the Sandlots. Buying Helmets,Patches,Medals & Firearms

while ----> Vietnam was "Grandpa's War" and WW2 is considered "civil war" material.

 

Sorry i got off topic, Carey

 

[General Apathy]

 

Vance, I agree 100% with your statement.

 

I was discussing the Civil War scenario at the SOS with a handful of friends. I have

came to the conclusion that it's a Downward Spiral, when it comes to buying or selling.

What entry level collector wants to start buying items that are.

1. Too Expensive.

2. Too far an era in the past to warrant starting a collection.

Guys will have barns full of Civil War items ... Who wants a McClellan Saddle ? Nothing is really worth having in a collection to a new collector. "My thoughts"

They want a handful of items ... Swords,Medals,Documents & Firearms. if they buy anything.

 

New Collectors are exposed to the Current War in the Sandlots. Buying Helmets,Patches,Medals & Firearms

while ----> Vietnam was "Grandpa's War" and WW2 is considered "civil war" material.

 

Sorry i got off topic, Carey

 

 

Hi Carey, I would like to add to your comments, but first off back to the topic of currency exchange, this mornings news is that I can get an extra two cents euro for my British pound, and predictions are by mid summer maybe a further ten cents euro for my pound.

 

I think other issues are coming into play with the collecting market, costs of housing and what you get for your money housing wise. Certainly in the UK due to immigration that has happened in the last ten years the need for housing has fueled the prices. Baby boomers thirty years ago would have got a 3 / 4 bedroom house, garage, garden and enough land to park several cars, today's property buyers for much more cost get a one bedroom flat in a complex, no garage, no garden, and a single designated space for one car.

 

The baby boomers had space to store and stash stuff, spare bedrooms maybe, the garage, build extra garage, or add rooms to the house, today's youth do not have these opportunities so they don't have space for collections, or as in my youth buying cheap Jeeps because I had the land and garages to store them.

 

Thirty years ago collectors grabbed anything marked up US and WWII dated, they had the money and the space etc, and I still think WWII is the favoured period. More than any other conflict prior to WWII and todate it's possible to own and drive WWII vehicles as they were made so plentiful at that time and still exist, and the uniforms and equipment to go along with those vehicles. This may in part be why there is possibly a demise in US civil war stuff, how can you afford it, where do you store it, how can you use it.

 

Also note most WWII collectors go Army, Airforce rather than Navy, military vehicles are available, some of the more wealthy collectors can afford aircraft, where do you ' store or drive' a Battleship

 

Apologies if I have rambled on, I look forward to waking up in the moring maybe, and being another two cents on my pound richer, it was certainly depressing when it was one to one.

 

Lewis

 

.

[Thor996]

Hi Carey, I would like to add to your comments, but first off back to the topic of currency exchange, this mornings news is that I can get an extra two cents euro for my British pound, and predictions are by mid summer maybe a further ten cents euro for my pound.

 

I think other issues are coming into play with the collecting market, costs of housing and what you get for your money housing wise. Certainly in the UK due to immigration that has happened in the last ten years the need for housing has fueled the prices. Baby boomers thirty years ago would have got a 3 / 4 bedroom house, garage, garden and enough land to park several cars, today's property buyers for much more cost get a one bedroom flat in a complex, no garage, no garden, and a single designated space for one car.

 

The baby boomers had space to store and stash stuff, spare bedrooms maybe, the garage, build extra garage, or add rooms to the house, today's youth do not have these opportunities so they don't have space for collections, or as in my youth buying cheap Jeeps because I had the land and garages to store them.

 

Thirty years ago collectors grabbed anything marked up US and WWII dated, they had the money and the space etc, and I still think WWII is the favoured period. More than any other conflict prior to WWII and todate it's possible to own and drive WWII vehicles as they were made so plentiful at that time and still exist, and the uniforms and equipment to go along with those vehicles. This may in part be why there is possibly a demise in US civil war stuff, how can you afford it, where do you store it, how can you use it.

 

Also note most WWII collectors go Army, Airforce rather than Navy, military vehicles are available, some of the more wealthy collectors can afford aircraft, where do you ' store or drive' a Battleship

 

Apologies if I have rambled on, I look forward to waking up in the moring maybe, and being another two cents on my pound richer, it was certainly depressing when it was one to one.

 

Lewis

 

.

 

I agree with a lot you say here and with what others in this thread are saying. That being said, while the longterm market for militaria of all epochs definitely interests me, I don't let it totally influence me because I buy what I like and I'm not necessarily planning on selling it down the road to reap a huge profit.

 

I try not to focus my militaria collection on one epoch, or one battle, or one of anything really and I know some collectors will call me out for that, but my interests arent singular so why should my collections be?

 

AS for the younger generation, It does concern me that the next generation of potential collectors [buyers] is dead broke at the moment for the most part, but so were a lot of us people who had children at young ages, or only discovered this stuff when we were able to shed the bulk of our student loans. Growing up in lower middle class home, I never really was able to go to gun shows and the like with my dad. He was too busy working two jobs to put a roof over our heads- stuff like this was superflous 'junk' to my mom.......I'm sure that's still going on in families today; perhaps even more since the economic hard times that whacked us all in the first part of this century.

 

Sorry to ramble,..........just my random thoughts.

[bsgt78]

Hey,

15/20 years ago it was possible to find great deals on Ebay USA, and on this forum as well (but less than 15 years ). In America the first market is...America. However Europe is a second market which used to be good for some extra sells by US sellers.

Today the price has exploded between the shipping costs, tax and other fees such as eBay and Paypal. On the other hand a strong Euro was good enough to buy stuff and to offset the costs. Today with the parity, you can say goodbye to Europe. The future will say if it's gonna to change.

The market is different between old items from WW1 or 2 and the present. The quality is different, the quantity is different and finally the price and the availability.

Last argument, the word "collection" has became a magic word to rip off people. It is old = it is a valuable merchandise. We started a post with "weird people on Ebay". One of my post treated the idea that some sellers have on eBay some items 10 times more expensive on "Buy it now" in comparison of the average price.

So relax, the US market is still accessible even between the 50 states.

[PVON]

Interesting to hear everyones thoughts!

 

I think many touch on what they see and believe!

 

Overseas buyers is good but shipping is a killer for everyone!

 

So much depends on what point your collecting is at!

 

Many are collectors,some are flippers of stuff,some wear stuff,higer end or low end

collectors buy and sell!

 

Demand for ww2 is strong its just getting folks to pay!Many factors do factor in!

 

Older collectors have lots of good stuff put away and it will make it to others in future!

 

Its all about the money!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

 

Just my thoughts!

 

PVON