Do you think your collection will hold its' value?

[cutiger83]

Since a majority of people collect WWII items, I thought I would post a general question I have been pondering.

 

In another 10 - 15 years, there probably won't be any living WWII vets. Will this cause a drop in the interest in WWII? Will this result in a decline in interest in WWII militaria? Will this cause the value to go up?

 

While I know there are no living WWI vets and there is still an interest in WWI militaria, I wonder if the same will happen with the WWII militaria. Militaria prior to WWII is rare. Most early items were lost due to the Depression or were reused in civlilan life. There was not the desire to save everything like there was in the post-WWII era.

 

Do any of you worry about the value of your collection going down in the coming years? Will something you pay top dollar for today be worth 1/2 as much in another decade?

 

....Kat

[Bugme]

I always worry that my collection will go the way of Beanie babies. :pinch:

[gwb123]

Beanie Babies became hyper inflated in short order. There is still a market for them, but I think prices just dropped back into the realm of the rational. Come on... they were supposed to be "affordable" toys that kids could buy with their allowance. It was the dang fool adults who came in an messed it all up. Now you cannot convince a 6 year old to cut the tag off a Beanie Baby if you tried.

 

Back to Militaria... here's a cautionary tale. Talk to anyone who was collecting East German, Soviet and Warsaw Pact stuff during the 1970's or 1980's. (You could throw in Communist China in there as well.) While the Great Red Monolith was staring us in the face, this stuff was the product of closed societies and hard to come by. Plus it represented "the Evil Empire". Prices were sky high on just about everything....until...

 

1989, when the Berlin Wall came crashing down. Within a year East German stuff was flooding US gunshows, and two years after that you could hardly give it away. Stuff was being imported by the container load, and you could buy a Soviet General's uniform for peanuts. People who had paid thousands of dollars for their collections watched their value just melt away, and even today many of them have not recovered.

 

Now that I have told you that horror story, I think it was an exception. But it does illustrate that point that values can transitory and based on the tastes and fashion of the moment.

 

Long time WWII collectors will tell you that prices for certain items seem to rise and fall based on current popularity of a given field. Even a mere 15 years ago you'd of been hard pressed to find many people seriously interested in helmets. Sure, the ones with the big red Medic's cross or a Ranger helmet might bring some money, but I just can't remember reading detailed discussions about split seams and fixed bales, etc.

 

Another example is Women's uniforms. You could not give them away for years. You can tell me better than I would know how prices have gone with those.

 

Part of this is better resources, part of this is a changed view on what was important during the war.

 

Your current WWII collection will continue to have value. The question is will the prices of certain subcategories rise and fall, or remain stable relative to inflation and other things in the market.

 

I think WWII will continue to hold a fascination... As Bart Simpson once said, all wars are bad... the only good wars were the American Revolution, WWII, and Star Wars!

[GoldenCross]

I think that WWII collections will hold their value better than other wars/eras. Because of it's historical magnitude, I think its safe to say that WWII lends itself to be one of, if not the most "popular" war. Perhaps there will be a surge in value when the last vets pass away? Some last minute, desperate reaches for connection to the greatest generation may steer the market a bit. What do ya think??

 

Plus, as long as Hollywood has to say anything about WWII, the collections will maintain some sort of value.

[rr01]

I think much of the value will be based on the presentation. My meager Ike might be worth only $20 but throw in a couple period items like a "Yank" magazine, a sweetheart pin or a pistol belt & canteen and the overall price might be gretaer than the individual items {The sum of the whole is.......?}. No matter, I'm just having fun and not worrying too much about the future.

[Jack's Son]

I don't know what the interest level will be in the future. A big factor will be how the memories of world conflict and changes in our perception of "patriotism" will hold into the future. If your values of US history and world history change, if our way of life changes, I don't believe our collections will be worth a dime until said patriotism and a secure America change back to al least today's levels.

[juvatwad]

No, I do not think my collection will hold it's value. All collectible markets have ups and downs, but I believe the militaria market is only at the beginning of a very long down turn.

[Third Herd]

There is a fixed number of original older items and that deceases every year, unless someone finds a forgotten warehouse full of stuff. The prices of the older stuff has only gone up, I can't believe stuff that used to cost a quarter now is $20 or more. I wish I would have known about all the versions of the M-1 helmets and liners and dug through the piles the surplus stores had in the 1950's for next to nothing. I'm not worried about the value going down on the older stuff

[manayunkman]

As long as you have disposable income you will have militaria collectors.

[Sabrejet]

As long as you have disposable income you will have militaria collectors.

 

Alternatively, as long as you have disposable collectors you will have a militaria income!

[Justin]

Alternatively, as long as you have disposable collectors you will have a militaria income!

Not sure of the glass is half full or half empty here!

[manayunkman]

Alternatively, as long as you have disposable collectors you will have a militaria income!

 

 

Say what ?

[Johan Willaert]

In another 10 - 15 years, there probably won't be any living WWII vets. Will this cause a drop in the interest in WWII? Will this result in a decline in interest in WWII militaria? Will this cause the value to go up?

 

As young collectors we asked ourselves these same questions during the 45th D-Day Commemorations in Normandy back in 1989....

 

Look what has happened to the value of our collections...

 

Prices will never go down..... There are future collectors born every day but the amount of original gear stays exactly like it was and is...

 

I was pretty much the only in my region who collected US stuff when I started.... Look at it now...

[Sabrejet]

I've got a number of original WW2 weapons...de-activated (according to British firearms laws) but in otherwise tip-top condition. I've had them for 20 years or more. Since then, changes to the law have meant that all current de-activated weapons must be welded-up. Mine are fully functional...apart from being able to shoot! Consequently, they are highly sought after items as all British collectors really want weapons they can actually strip, cock, dry-fire etc. So, for example, my minty M1 rifle which cost me around £200 / $320 in 1989 would now sell for £1200 > £1500 ( $1900 > $2400) in the current market. Same would apply to my Carbine...Thompson..M3...M1911A1...so that represents a good return on my initial investment, should I ever decide to sell. Then there's the helmets...!!

[hbtcoveralls]

You really don't know, but I've seen prices only really trend upward. Sometimes all it takes is a new book to revive or create demand for a collecting category. That's what happened to helmets. They were cheap (in fact I never paid more than $30.00 for a helmet and that was for a mint unissued helmet and liner) until the books started to be written about collecting helmets and the prices have just about doubled and tripled and show no signs of stopping.

WWI has lost some popularity but the prices don't really reflect it. With the 100th anniversary of WWI coming up it may even come back for a while. Really the best thing that can happen to the future value of WWII collectibles is that they stay affordable. Once the prices start to exclude willing collectors, the category will die much like Civil war is now. With fewer and fewer beginning collectors Civil War is losing interested people in droves.

Tom Bowers

[king802]

I think the value of any collection is linked to the current state of the economy. My main collecting focus is helmets and these until recently saw a steady rise. Going by e-bay prices at present they seem to have dropped in price. Take for example the amount of high end helmets for sale currently on the forum, hardly any of them are being sold (although high end items never do well on the forum anyway).

 

As prices go up then the pool of collectors who can afford to pay the prices goes down. At best we can hope to break even.

 

Personally i think that over time we will see a decline in interest and the pool of collectors will shrink.

 

One thing's for sure the only time you are ever going to make any serious money is when you decide to sell off and quit collecting for good.

 

Rich

[Sabrejet]

The helmet market has been ruined by the influx of over-priced fakes and the ludicrously high prices currently being asked for spare parts such as liner chinstraps, sweatbands and covers etc. This puts them beyond the reach of most young collectors....heck, even I have to pass on most of them at those prices! The collecting community has created an unsustainable monster! On the positive side, American collectors still have the possibility of finding gems quite cheaply in estate/garage sales etc.....unfortunately this is not a luxury available to we European-based collectors!

[teufelhunde.ret]

All areas of collecting go thru cycles known as the "Tulip Bubble". Militaria and its various collecting areas are not immune to this effect. Many collectors lose sight of reasonable expectations. Our intellectual biases can lead to a ponderous uptick in the price of any thing; from a medal group to a restored uniform. The positive-feedback (as we see here every day) cycle continues to swell the collector ego and prices (I gotta have more!). Suddenly the collector(s) realizes that he/she are merely holding onto something that they maxed their credit card for, or robbed their kids college fund for. Fair market values plunge, as the hefty sell off begins. "And now you know the rest of the story" as Paul Harvey would say.

[Johan Willaert]

ANd of course it depends on whether you collect out of interest or investment...

[hawkdriver]

We are definitely in a down turn right now and I believe it is due to the economy. The other factor is that items are only worth their value if people know what it is. I have had several very scarce items that should have been worth a pretty penny, but couldn't hardly give it away and that is because no one knew what it was. As the WWII guys die off, I believe that the WWII stuff will begin losing popularity. In the last half dozen shows I have conducted, I can count on one hand the number of WWI items that I have sold. My vote is down turn on value.

[irish]

Collect what you like and not what you think you can make money on. There is a herd mentality in many areas of collecting and militaria is not immune to this. There will always be trends, if you chase in that direction you may end up on the wrong side. I started out collecting patches when I was about 10 years old, actually had my mother sew them onto a sweat shirt I wore, in fact my father's WW2 armor triangle was on there. I am still collecting patches, however with much more gusto than when I was ten, disposable income. I hope my collection holds value but in the meantime I am really having fun.

[Bluehawk]

My collection will come up for sale sometime after the year 2030, and I anticipate that its value could rise roughly 30% by that time.

[Sabrejet]

Mine is willed to my son. I've told him it's collectively worth £££££s and have identified the most valuable items so that after my days (not for some time yet I hope! ) ) he knows what to sell separately for maximum potential profit. Otherwise, I've suggested he contact a reputable dealer...but NO cherry-picking! If it was to be sold an item at a time it would possibly generate more, but would literally take months and months......

[Dave]

A wise collector once told me: "Only buy the best quality you can afford, you'll never regret it."

 

Of course, I didn't listen to him. I bought stuff that was mediocre that I liked, and some of it has gone up in value, some has gone down.

 

I will admit though that I have bought some "high end" stuff over time. No matter what the economy has done, the prices have continued to rise, and in some cases, exponentially.

 

I know this is verboten to discuss, but I have owned multiple Soviet Hero of the Soviet Union and Glory Cavalier groups. In every case, the value went up, even while I owned them. However, I only made maybe $500-$1000 profit while owning them for the time I did. In about 2006-2007, the prices for high end Soviet awards went through the roof and groups I sold for $6, $7, and $10K were suddenly worth $30, $40, and $70K. Yes, I could bang my head on the wall multiple times over, as I could have paid for my house outright if I still had the groups I used to own...but such is life (I have a friend who bought stock in Apple for $1.83 a share, and now it's trading for what, $690 a share??? He's a millionaire now. You can kick yourself for not doing something all day long...or just move on...)

 

So yes, I personally believe that high end militaria will always appreciate in value, whereas "middle of the road" militaria will remain the same or only slightly increase over time.

 

My thoughts from the last 26 years of collecting....

 

Dave

[Dave]

Another sea story...I knew a guy back in 1993 and 1994 was paying $50 each for Ike jackets because he KNEW that in 1995, with the 50th Anniversary of victory in WW2 the prices were going to go "through the roof". He was literally buying every one he could get his hands on...and this was when you could get a nice Ike with full insignia for $15-$20 (note they haven't increased much in value...)

 

Last I heard, he still has a 20 foot container full of Ike jackets...most still aren't worth what he paid... :pinch: :pinch: :pinch: