Still waiting for the WW1 Centennial Bump (In Prices that is)

[ludwigh1980]

So, as a long time collector of WW1 militaria ( I wish I could say that is the only period I collect, as evidence by my full garage, closet and spare bedrooms), I often wondered if it there would be an increase in prices in WW1 material. It seems that there was quite bit of speculation that this would indeed happen as there were some entities that bought out more than one dealers complete inventories. While this has been the case with some commonwealth (UK) and German material, U.S. material if anything has gone down (with the exception of rare volunteer material: Norton-Harjes, American Field Service etc.) I have continued to buy and it seems that if anything prices have come down even more so through the centennial memorials. One would think that with a renewed interest and attention that the opposite would occur. I have noticed several big collections coming to market in the last several months and by an large prices are significantly down. Since I do not resell my WW1 stuff It has mattered little and I have actually started to increase my buying due to the availability and affordability.. I just find it worth pondering. Interested in other's thoughts on this.

 

Happy Hunting,

Terry.

[Dave]

When I was younger, there was a guy who was paying $50 a piece for Ike jackets with insignia. It didn't matter what it was...an Ike with insignia was an Ike with insignia. At the time, a "boring" Ike would bring $15-$20, so this guy bought hundreds of Ikes. I heard he had enough to fill an entire storage container.

 

Why did he do this? He KNEW that the 50th anniversary of D-Day (June 6th, 1994) would bring a HUGE level of interest in US militaria and his $50 investments would double...neigh...triple...in due course.

 

Fast forward twenty four years and there are still plenty of Ike jackets that can be had for $50 or less, with original insignia.

 

Same can be said with speculation of Marine uniforms based on the release of "The Pacific" series. Some people expected a "Band of Brothers" pop in value. In the end, Marine uniforms still haven't really appreciated in value.

 

Sure, there are always top-shelf ones that appreciate, but for the majority in both categories...not so much.

 

Maybe I'm jaded, but I don't expect a huge bump in WW1 militaria any time soon. I've seen far too much predicted "excited inflation" end up as flatlines to believe anything else...

 

Dave

[Salvage Sailor]

Heck Dave,

 

I hardly saw anything but a passing reference to the centennial of the Armistice of the "War to End All Wars"

 

It really was rather disappointing.

[Bugme]

I'd have to agree, prices are dropping on WWI items. I think many things have led to this, the least of which being that WWII overshadows the first war.

 

You also have the U.S. getting involved late into WWI. As such, Americans kind of see it as a "short" war.

 

Maybe because 100 years is an eternity in many people eyes thus it is ancient history.

 

Maybe because the number of movies about WWII outdo WWI movies 10 to 1.

 

And maybe we just don't know. Whatever the case, I'll keep collecting it because I like this stuff.

[VMI88]

I agree - i just don't think the public is interested in World War 1 and I doubt many were even aware of the anniversary.

[Blacksmith]

This is really a great topic. Honestly, I think hypotheses on price spikes due to X factor are more salve than anything. It is either marketing stories for others, or to make ourselves feel better. As many times it comes from dealers, I suspect maybe a bias.

 

Net net, I agree with Scott. I collect the stuff because I like it, and am sure it will be near worthless before I would ever get rid of it. I never bought it as an investment, and consider the enjoyment of owning / studying it as my profit. There have been a number of topics that discuss plausible future pricing factors in detail, so I wont beleaguer those here. In summary, it comes down to the fact that we cannot force subsequent generations to have the same interests we do, and I consider that a good thing - otherwise, change doesnt happen. Or maybe they do, and just express / observe them differently. Ironically, I think the same digital frontier that allows us to so quickly and easily research our items, has also ushered in the dawning lack of interest. Younger generations deal in largely virtual commodities, and dont surround themselves with stuff. I respect that, and at this point, wish I was more like that. I have been gradually moving that direction too. Having rooms and boxes full of non-essentials, makes you far less mobile. It also represents money that could be used to create shared experiences and memories, like family vacations, etc.

 

In the end, there is no right and wrong. It is whatever makes you happy. That said, I would say if you have any inkling of ever selling stuff, the time is now. There is no future lift coming on ANY of this stuff, in my opinion. Only a gradual and continual slide. The possible exception I see is OIF / OEF / GWOT items, in 20-30 years. But, I see that being single items as mementos, versus buying dozens of duplicates.

 

All just my belief.

[USARV72]

Blacksmith, you post is spot on. Would wager the majority of us “ old collectors” have/ had same perspective, we love what we collect because of what it is, not neccessaily who owned it or used it. Speculation on value is just that, no one knows what economic situations will affect prices. Anniversaries of WWI and WWII have come and gone, always enjoyed displaying parts of collection to educate folks. Seems that some movies drove prices of certain items through the roof. Then there are the repro items from movies we have to deal with, most are easy to recognise. Helmets are extreemly dangerous now days. Over 30 years ago knew a guy in Va that bought every WWI helmet he found, usually around $15-$30 depending on condition. He was an “ artist”, had cans of old lead based paint that he created nice looking unit marked helmets, most likely close to 100. Then a few years later a USMC major that re enacted US Airborne with us started making D bales. What do they look like today? When SPR came along a nother guy in Va painted unknown number of “Ranger helmets” for the movie. He bragged, no one can tell the difference”, admitt , they were extreemly good. Sadly new collectors, and a few older one have to deal with repros or fakes in todays market.

[268th C.A.]

I guess I'll jump in to head first. The last two post I will also agree on. I blame a lot of this on History is not taught anymore in school. Political correctness on the American Civil War too any War on terrorism . Todays generation is taught that nothing is worth fighting for. Roll over and fall in the abyss. Tear down the monuments, borders, everything should be free except We the People. I know we are not supposed to get political here, but every war is political. Right or wrong Americans are the first to jump in for the rescue of the world. Some countries don't even care. Win or loose. We loose America's finest soldiers, sailors, marines and airmen. Americans every day for Freedom. I might be getting off topic here and I apologize for the ranting. But when we lose sight of our values as Americans, we have lost our country and everything thing you value. Put God back in school, the flag, the anthem, the pelage of alliance.

I guess in a nut shell all this collecting will be lost and worthless if We don't wake up and speak up. My hope is America is noticing what's going on. Share history and don't feel like your the silent majority anymore.

Kindest Regards, 268th C.A.

 

moderators if this is too off key feel free to delete this comment.

[Kadet]

I've been at this hobby (and WWII German) since I was a teenager in the 70s. I don't think it has to do with politics, TV shows or anniversaries. The only constant I've seen is that really special stuff will always command a good price. Many of these deals happen behind the scenes between collectors...but they happen. The vast majority of the market is flat, but the exceptional stuff retains and even increases value.

[JasonT]

I got to agree 100% with Kadet. Great rare items will always increase, while rather common items stay mostly the same - in fact you'd be lucky if a lot increased with the rate of inflation.

 

As a young WW2 collector, I know I can easily acquire most things out there and that will probably be the case 20 years from now. They just made so much of the stuff.

 

The only thing that might change is the ability to research named items or groupings or get good reference materials. So maybe the most sure thing of getting your money back if you can't afford the rare stuff, is investing in a bunch of reference books.

 

But if you collect because you enjoy it instead of looking to make a profit, who cares what the market does?

[Blacksmith]

I mean this with all due respect:

 

I almost added to my post that somebody would come along and claim that rare / top-shelf / special stuff will always increase in (or hold its) value.

 

This is a fallacy IMO. While it may sound comforting, it is contradicted by most basic market functions that have stood the test of time. A lack of demand is a lack of demand, no matter the commodity - full stop.

 

Do I think there will ever be a day that NOBODY is collecting WWII stuff? No, or at least I hope not. But look at Kinkade art, Beanie Babies, sports cards, stamps / coins, Hummel figurines, comic books, etc, etc, and etc... The circle will continue to get smaller, and even the rare pieces will bring less money. This is not just a matter of fad replacing fad, but is aggravated by a fundamental shift in how interests are enjoyed. You dont have to look further than the trend in Civil War militaria values, and complicate that further by less collecting behavior in general.

 

Folks generally get entrenched in one of the two beliefs, and I am certainly not thinking many minds will change.

[268th C.A.]

Blacksmith nailed it again!

[Kadet]

My comments are based on firsthand experience buying and selling such items...but you are certainly entitled to your opinion

[USARV72]

All, need to reflect that society in general affects all markets, old cars, antique furniture, G&S( only a few know what that is) vintage records, on and on. Collecting militaria is a very narrow aspect of collecting, the love and knowledge of history drives our hobby, realize it or not. Lack of traditional values, love and appreciation of our countrys history is a factor, removal of the pledge of allegience and God from schools is a factor. One has No First hand knowledge until they go to some 3 rd world hole and realize what is at home. nuf sed.

[Blacksmith]

As are mine good Sir.

 

My comments are based on firsthand experience buying and selling such items...but you are certainly entitled to your opinion

[917601]

Only one observation, I expect WW2 items to take the decline ( like Civil War and WW1 items) when that WW2 computer game " The Call of Duty" and " Warthunder" fades away....you would simply be amazed at how many kids and teens are addicted to the game....I run into them at every single event I do. That said, I have noticed a general WW2 " topping" in realized prices, firearms are the exception. I just saw a Japanese, papered, crated last ditch type 99 w/mum bring back realize $1200 at auction!